Dynamical analysis of the SEIHCRD model on the spread of COVID-19

Qur'ani, Fahma Mu'jizatil, Widayani, Heni ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6966-6754 and Kharisma, Ria Dhea Nur (2024) Dynamical analysis of the SEIHCRD model on the spread of COVID-19. Presented at The International Symposium on Biomathematics (Symomath) 2022, 31 July - 2 August 2022, Bandung.

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Abstract

This study discussed the SEIHCRD mathematical model with social distancing and mass testing for the spread of COVID-19. The model consists of seven subpopulations, namely a subpopulation of susceptible individuals (S), a subpopulation of exposed individuals (E), a subpopulation of infected individuals (I), a subpopulation of hospitalized individuals (H), a subpopulation of critical individuals (C), a subpopulation of recovered individuals (R), and the subpopulation of individuals who died (D). Dynamic analysis was carried out by determining the equilibrium point, local stability analysis of the equilibrium point, and the basic reproduction number (R_0). The results of the dynamic analysis obtained two equilibrium points, namely the disease-free equilibrium point (E_0) and the endemic equilibrium point (E_1 ). The equilibrium point E_0 is locally asymptotically stable if R_0<1 and the equilibrium point E_1 is locally asymptotically stable if R_0>1. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the parameter that affect on the basic reproduction number. Based on the results, it is found that parameter of social distancing and mass testing has a negative sensitivity index, which means that by increasing the value of these parameters, so R_0 will decrease. Then, numerical simulations shown that when R_0<1 the solution goes to a equilibrium point E_0 and when R_0>1 the solution goes to an equilibrium point E_1. The SEIHCRD model simulation with social distancing and mass testing which is applied to daily cases in Indonesia had the results that effectiveness of social distancing in Indonesia is 55% and mass testing is 20%.

Item Type:	Conference (Paper)
Keywords:	COVID-19; SEIHCRD; Social Distancing; mass testing
Subjects:	01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010202 Biological Mathematics 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010204 Dynamical Systems in Applications
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences > Department of Mathematics
Depositing User:	Heni Widayani
Date Deposited:	25 Nov 2025 10:17

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