The contribution of social media (Instagram) to voting decisions with public trust as a moderating variable

Cholili, Abd Hamid ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3495-2993, Mukminin, Emha Zainul, Rosdiana, Aprilia Mega ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6457-528X and Wahyudi, Firman Nur (2026) The contribution of social media (Instagram) to voting decisions with public trust as a moderating variable. International Journal of Education, Vocational and Social Science( IJVESS), 5 (3). pp. 770-787. ISSN 2963-4954

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Abstract

Social media platforms, particularly Instagram, have transformed political communication and voter engagement in contemporary democracies. However, the extent to which digital exposure translates into concrete electoral decisions remains contingent on underlying psychological and institutional factors. This study examines the influence of Instagram usage intensity on voting decisions among residents of Malang City, Indonesia, and evaluates the moderating role of public trust in this relationship. Employing a quantitative correlational design, data were collected from 400 registered voters using validated scales for Instagram intensity, voting decisions, and public trust. Simple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) were utilized to test direct and conditional effects. The initial model revealed a minimal direct effect of Instagram intensity on voting decisions (R² = 0.000). However, introducing public trust as a moderator significantly enhanced the model’s explanatory power (R² = 0.039, F = 7.170, p = 0.001), indicating that the relationship between digital political exposure and electoral choice is conditional. Public trust functions as an amplifying mechanism, strengthening the translation of Instagram-based political content into informed voting preferences. These findings challenge deterministic media-effects paradigms by demonstrating that social media’s electoral influence is activated within high-trust environments. Practically, political strategists and electoral commissions should integrate trust-building initiatives with digital campaigning to foster rational voter participation. The study contributes to digital political communication literature by positioning institutional trust as a critical boundary condition in contemporary electoral behavior.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Keywords:	Instagram usage intensity; public trust; voting decisions
Subjects:	17 PSYCHOLOGY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES > 1701 Psychology > 170113 Social and Community Psychology 17 PSYCHOLOGY AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES > 1701 Psychology
Divisions:	Faculty of Psychology
Depositing User:	Abd. Hamid Cholili
Date Deposited:	17 Jun 2026 10:46

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