The synchronization of ASEAN +3 business cycles: prerequisites for common currency union

Riyanto, Feri Dwi and Erlando, Angga and Haryanto, Tri (2021) The synchronization of ASEAN +3 business cycles: prerequisites for common currency union. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8 (3). pp. 781-791. ISSN 2288-4645

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the business cycles of the ASEAN +3 countries. In addition, the effects of the spillover value on the coincident indicators are determined. This study employs secondary data and uses multivariate time series of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. The proxy was the real gross domestic product (GDP) collected annually from the CEIC, the IMF, and the World Bank for the period from 1964 to 2016. The data was plotted against two time periods, 1964–1998 as the pre-crisis period, and 1999–2016 as the post-crisis period. The index data was changed to the base year 2010. The data was subsequently separated from the trends and the cyclic components. The cyclic components were obtained by using Hondrick-Prescott filter, and them were further analyzed. The analytical method used was Contemporaneous and Cross-Correlation tools. The results showed that, before and after the crisis, the value of the business cycle correlation between ASEAN +3 countries was stronger and moved together at the same level of lag value. The implication of this research was an initial finding of the ASEAN +3 countries’ prerequisites for the formation of a common currency.

Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: ASEAN+3; business cycle synchronization; optimum currency area; economic integration
Subjects: 14 ECONOMICS > 1401 Economic Theory > 140102 Macroeconomic Theory
14 ECONOMICS > 1402 Applied Economics > 140210 International Economics and International Finance
14 ECONOMICS > 1402 Applied Economics > 140212 Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
14 ECONOMICS > 1403 Econometrics > 140305 Time-Series Analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Economics > Department of Management
Depositing User: Feri Dwi Riyanto
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2021 12:02

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