Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in Local Areas in Indonesia

Burhanuddin, Alvian and Kurniawan, Fachrul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-8764 (2021) Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in Local Areas in Indonesia. Presented at 2021 3rd East Indonesia Conference on Computer and Information Technology (EIConCIT), 9-11 April 2021, Surabaya, Indonesia.

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Abstract

COVID-19 has spread in various countries, one of which is Indonesia. Several provinces in Indonesia have reported individuals who have tested positive for the virus. The spread that has not been completed makes prediction difficult, especially in the heuristic model. Therefore, this paper tries to approach the SIR and SIRD models to determine developments and estimate their distribution in Indonesia. We compared the two models to predict the peak spread of the virus in the local area. The SIRD model predicts that there will be a peak on day 178, while SIR is on day 177. This difference is influenced by the Alpha value, which is obtained from virus induction.

Item Type:	Conference (Paper)
Subjects:	08 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 0803 Computer Software > 080309 Software Engineering 08 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 0806 Information Systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Technology > Department of Informatics Engineering
Depositing User:	Fachrul Kurniawan
Date Deposited:	23 Jun 2021 21:51

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