Time Series Forecasting for the Spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia Using Curve Fitting

Kurniawan, Arif and Kurniawan, Fachrul ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-8764 (2021) Time Series Forecasting for the Spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia Using Curve Fitting. Presented at 2021 3rd East Indonesia Conference on Computer and Information Technology (EIConCIT), 9-11 April 2021, Surabaya, Indonesia.

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Abstract

The spread of Covid-19 has a huge impact on human life around the world, especially in Indonesia. Until now, the estimation of when this pandemic will end is still a big question. Therefore, a prediction is needed as the basis for the policies of the interested parties. In this paper, the Curve Fitting method is used to estimate the period and total cases of the spread of Covid-19 based on time series data for positive case growth without considering the rate of recovery, lockdown policy, and so on. With the proposed method and calculated based on the normal curve, the estimated end of a pandemic is at day seven hundred and fifty or about two years since the start of the pandemic. So that this estimate can be used as a basis by the government to make policies, for example when schools can be conducted face-to-face or other policies related to community needs.

Item Type:	Conference (Paper)
Keywords:	covid-19, curve fitting, prediction
Subjects:	08 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 0803 Computer Software > 080309 Software Engineering 08 INFORMATION AND COMPUTING SCIENCES > 0806 Information Systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Technology > Department of Informatics Engineering
Depositing User:	Fachrul Kurniawan
Date Deposited:	23 Jun 2021 21:39

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